時論廣場》瓦格納集團叛變與臺灣的關聯（方恩格）

瓦格納集團兵變震撼世界。圖爲瓦格納集團人員撤離俄南部軍區總部所在區域。（新華社）

近日，俄羅斯瓦格納集團僱傭軍發生兵變，國外和臺灣媒體紛紛發表文章，試圖解釋臺灣可以從這次事件中得到什麼教訓。這並不奇怪，因爲在俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭後，媒體報導、學術文章和世界各國政府的新聞稿中出現了無數烏克蘭與臺灣的比較。

這些評論試圖表明臺灣可以從瓦格納集團叛變中汲取教訓，其中包括美國智庫外交關係委員會的文章「普里格津拯救了臺灣嗎？」；《日本時報》的一篇報導「失敗的俄羅斯叛變爲中國提供了寶貴的教訓」；印度《第一郵報》問「瓦格納叛變是否讓中國對侵略臺灣持謹慎態度？」；《臺灣+》報導了「瓦格納集團叛變與對臺灣的教訓」和「瓦格納集團：普丁的權力、派系鬥爭和政治鬥爭」。

上週訪問臺北的戰略與國際研究中心學者賀博然在推特上寫道：「從美麗的臺北跟大家問好，這裡沒有企圖武裝叛亂的僱傭兵。」筆者不清楚爲什麼他要在推特上刻意指出這一點。

其中許多分析似乎都表明，中國領導人習近平將更關心對臺灣採取軍事行動。但事實真的是這樣嗎？上述文章中，專家的評論都對「瓦格納集團叛變後，中國不太可能對臺灣採取軍事行動」的說法保持謹慎並提出理由。

美國外交關係委員會的文章稱，「上週末發生的事件是中國獨裁者考慮下一步行動時的一個警示」。然而，沒有理由相信中國領導層會面臨類似的軍隊兵變。如果臺灣人民希望中國發生這樣的兵變，這可能會轉移人們對維護臺灣安全所必須嚴肅面對的注意力。

《日本時報》記者寫道，瓦格納集團叛變「凸顯了戰時混亂會如何削弱強大的領導人」，因此「專家淡化了中國領導人在不久的將來下令攻擊民主臺灣的可能性」。這種分析的盲點，在於似乎顛倒了事件的順序。就像俄羅斯一樣，中國會首先對臺灣發動戰爭，即使存在國內混亂的風險。如果人們希望中國不會攻擊臺灣，是奠基於入侵後中國會有混亂的風險，這也可能會轉移人們對臺灣安全的注意力。

《第一郵報》的結論是，瓦格納集團的普里格津「可能幫了臺灣一個忙」，因爲「他向習近平展示了入侵的風險」。臺灣民衆如果認爲瓦格納集團叛變意味着習近平（或其繼任者）不會對臺灣採取軍事行動，即使是如果臺灣採取諸如將國名改爲「臺灣共和國」，或採取其他行動將臺獨正常化，那是非常愚蠢的想法。

一位美國學者在《臺灣+》節目中表示，習近平「將不得不質疑自己的圈子是否安全」。最有可能的是，習近平一直懷疑他的圈子是否安全，儘管去年10月二十大之後，最近的領導層變動和今年3月的「兩會」在短期內緩解了部分風險。無論如何，沒有理由相信習近平目前認爲自己不安全，並且這種風險將成爲不對臺灣採取軍事行動的理由。

至於那位學者指出臺灣沒有僱傭兵企圖武裝叛亂，筆者並不清楚他想表達什麼觀點，也許只是想開個玩笑。筆者更希望來訪的外國學者能夠以嚴肅的態度來對待臺灣的安全局勢，而不是把臺灣當作一個吃喝玩樂的地方。

在俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭前不久，及戰爭開始後的一段時間內，臺灣政府官員強調「臺灣不是烏克蘭」。當軍隊和人民表現出他們可以勇敢地保衛自己的國家時，臺灣又希望和烏克蘭做對照並支持烏克蘭。

筆者更傾向於這些評論者暗示讓臺灣就是臺灣。政府官員、媒體和學者應該抵制將臺灣與烏克蘭或世界其他局勢進行比較的衝動，而應關注如何使臺灣繁榮且安全。

（作者爲前美國共和黨亞太區主席）

Trying to Find Wagner Group Mutiny Relevance for Taiwan

By Ross Darrell Feingold

Twitter: @RossFeingold

Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad

The recent mutiny by the Wagner Group mercenary army in Russia resulted in many articles in foreign and Taiwan media that try to explain what, if any, are the lessons for Taiwan from the incident. This is no surprise given that after Russia invaded Ukraine, an endless number of Ukraine vs Taiwan comparisons have appeared in media reports, scholarly articles, and press releases from governments worldwide.

These commentaries trying to show there are lessons for Taiwan from the Wanger Group mutiny include the American think tank Council on Foreign Relations which asked “Did Prigozhin Just Save Taiwan?”, a report in The Japan Times “Failed Russia mutiny offers China valuable lesson on military missions”, India’s Firstpost media which asked “Has the Wagner Mutiny Made China Cautious of Invading Taiwan?”, and Taiwan Plus which reported on “The Wagner Group's Rebellion and Lessons for Taiwan” and “Wagner’s Coup: Putin's Power, Factional Struggles and Global Implications”.

Brian Hart （賀博然）, a scholar from The Center for Strategic and International Studies visiting Taipei last week wrote on Twitter “Hello from beautiful Taipei, where there are no mercenaries attempting an armed rebellion.” It is unclear to this author why he would need to point this out on Twitter.

Many of these analyses seemed to make the point that China’s Xi Jinping will be more concerned about taking military action against Taiwan. But is that really the case? Some of the comments by the experts in the above articles is a reason to be cautious about any claims the Wagner Group mutiny makes China less likely to take military action against Taiwan.

The Council of Foreign Relations article alleges that “the events of the past weekend are a cautionary tale as the Chinese dictator contemplates his next moves”. However, there is no reason to believe China’s leadership would face a similar mutiny by its military. If people in Taiwan wish to dream that such a mutiny might occur in China, this could divert attention from the serious decisions that are necessary to maintain Taiwan’s security.

The Japan Times reporter wrote that the Wagner Group mutiny “highlighted how wartime chaos can weaken powerful leaders” and thus, “experts have played down the possibility of China’s leaders ordering an attack on democratic Taiwan in the near future”. The problem with this analysis is that it appears to reverse the order of events. Like Russia did, China would first initiate the war with Taiwan, even if there is a risk of domestic chaos. If people wish to dream that China will not attack Taiwan because there is a risk of chaos in China after the invasion occurs, this could also divert attention from the serious decisions that are necessary to maintain Taiwan’s security.

The Firstpost report concluded that Wagner Group’s Yevgeny Prigozhin “may have done Taiwan a favor” because “he has shown Xi Jinping the risks of an invasion”. It would be very silly for people in Taiwan to assume that the Wagner Group mutiny means Xi Jinping (or his successors) will not take military action against Taiwan, especially if Taiwan were to take actions such as change the country name to “Republic of Taiwan” and take other actions to formalize Taiwan independence.

On Taiwan Plus, an American scholar said Xi Jinping “will have to question whether his own circle is secure”. Most likely, Xi Jinping has always questioned whether or not his circle is secure, though the recent leadership changes following the 20th Party Congress last October and the “Two Sessions” this part March mitigated some of this risk in the near term. Regardless, there is no reason to believe that Xi Jinping currently believes his position is insecure, and that such a risk will be a reason not to take military action against Taiwan.

As for the scholar who noted that there are no mercenaries attempting an armed rebellion in Taiwan, it wasn’t clear to this author what point the scholar wanted to make, other than perhaps an attempt to make a joke. This author would prefer that visiting foreign scholars treat Taiwan’s security situation with the seriousness it deserves, and not treat Taiwan as a place to have a good time （吃喝玩樂）when visiting.

Shortly before Russia invaded Ukraine, and for a period of time after the war began, Taiwan government officials emphasized that “Taiwan is not Ukraine”. When the military and people showed they can bravely defend their country, Taiwan wanted the comparison to be made and became a Ukraine supporter.

This author prefers that these commentators imply let Taiwan be Taiwan. Government officials, media, and scholars should resist the urge to compare Taiwan to Ukraine or other situations around the world, and instead focus on what needs to be done to make Taiwan prosperous and safe.