時論廣場》介選？ 不要侮辱選民的智商（方恩格）
（示意合成圖／資料照）
臺灣的新總統和立法院選舉已進入最後幾天。選舉基本上是和平的，而且失敗者也似乎會尊重選舉結果，這一事實表明了臺灣民主的力量。儘管外國記者和外國學者經常用「充滿活力的民主社會」來形容臺灣，但筆者更喜歡用「成熟民主社會」，因爲臺灣的民主早已從「充滿活力」的階段邁入了「成熟」的階段。
儘管臺灣是一個成熟的民主社會，但在投票前的最後幾天，仍有一些事情值得關注。
一、是否會再次發生影響選民的類似「五月天」事件？一些選民懷疑，有關中國大陸試圖逼迫搖滾樂團「五月天」發表支持兩岸統一的聲明的準確性。此事傳出幾天後，我們只知道匿名官員向外國媒體提出了這一說法，而中國方面對此予以否認。臺灣政府要麼拿出中國試圖逼迫五月天的證據，要麼如果整個事件是旨在干擾選舉的假新聞，那麼幕後黑手和發表該報導的外國媒體就應該道歉。
五月天事件讓許多人想起2020年大選前幾周的王立強事件。4年後，王立強所稱收受賄賂干涉臺灣大選的指控仍未得到證實，而王所指的「間諜頭子」向心在蔡政府當局4年來的拚命蒐羅下，也沒有被定罪。
不幸的是，爲了贏得選舉而對「中國介選」作出不實指控，有些人認爲是可以的。希望大選前最後一週，不再發生此類事件。
二、政客、記者和媒體專家會稱這是選民一生中最重要的選舉嗎？在民主國家，每次選舉總有人聲稱這次選舉將是選民一生中最重要的一次。《經濟學人》、《日經亞洲》等外媒已將這次選舉稱爲今年最重要的選舉之一。
現實情況是，在民主國家每次選舉都是重要的選舉，只有透過高投票率才能維護民主。稱一場選舉比過去或未來的選舉更重要，或恐嚇選民投票，都是愚蠢的。希望總統候選人和政黨、媒體、學者能夠鼓勵選民投票，但不必愚蠢地聲稱這次選舉是最重要的一次選舉。
同樣，人們應該避免聲稱臺灣選舉是今年世界上最重要的選舉之一。2024年，至少有76個國家和大約一半的全世界人口將參加投票。在亞太地區，孟加拉、印度和印尼將舉行選舉，這3場選舉對於亞洲的安全和經濟發展與臺灣的選舉一樣重要。
三、美國政府會干預嗎？白宮國家安全委員會戰略溝通協調人約翰‧柯比（John Kirby）在2024年1月5日發表的訪談中表示，美國希望臺灣能舉行自由、公正和透明的選舉。儘管筆者認爲，美國在整個競選過程中已經非常明確地表示，美國更希望民進黨的賴清德當選總統，但希望在大選前的最後幾天，美國政府官員不會就臺灣選舉發表更多言論以免干預臺灣的選情。
四、美國學者或前政府官員會介入嗎？至少有一位美國學者葛來儀（Bonnie Glaser）已經在競選活動中扮演了有爭議的角色。本週還會有美國知名人士抵達臺灣影響選情嗎？美國學者會不會說出支持賴清德的話？這些人肯定會在選舉後提供大量分析，但希望在選舉前的最後幾天他們不會試圖干預選情。
五、最後，根據《公職人員選舉罷免法》第53條、《總統副總統選舉罷免法》第52條規定，投票日前10日內不得對民調發表評論。中央選舉委員會和檢察官是否會在選舉後10天內對違反《選罷法》的人提出刑事控訴？筆者定期接受國外媒體訪問，如果我告訴外國觀衆最近的民調結果，我真的會面臨刑事指控嗎？這是一條愚蠢的法律，應該廢除。臺灣選民的成熟度值得更多尊重，希望未來「冷靜日」能縮短到一天。
（作者爲美國共和黨前亞太區主席）
Don’t Insult Voters’ Intelligence
By Ross Darrell Feingold
Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad
@RossFeingold
Taiwan has reached the final days before elections for a new President and Legislative Yuan. The fact that an election is largely peaceful, and the likelihood that the losers will respect the result, demonstrates the strength of Taiwan’s democracy. Although foreign journalists and foreign scholars often describe Taiwan as a “vibrant democracy”, this author prefers “mature democracy” because Taiwan’s democracy long ago passed from a “vibrant” stage to a “mature” stage.
Although Taiwan is a mature democracy, there are still things to watch in the final days before the election.
1. Will there be another “Mayday” incident to influence voters? Some voters doubt the accuracy of the allegations that the mainland attempted to force rock band Mayday to make a statement that they support Taiwan’s unification with China. Days after this incident made the news, we only know that anonymous Taiwan officials made this claim to foreign media, and, China has denied it. The Taiwan government should either produce the evidence that China tried to blackmail Mayday, or, if the entire incident is fake news meant to interfere in the election, the persons behind it and the foreign media that published the story should apologize.
The Mayday incident reminds many of the Wang Liqiang incident in the weeks prior to the 2020 election. Four years later, Wang’s allegations that he was paid to interfere in Taiwan’s election have yet to be proven, and Wang’s alleged “spy boss” Xiang Xin was not convicted of any crimes in Taiwan despite Taiwan authorities desperate efforts over four years.
It is unfortunate that some people think it is OK to make false allegations of China’s interference in order to win votes. Hopefully, this kind of incident will not occur again in the final week before the election.
2. Will politicians, journalists, and media pundits call this the most important election of voters’ lives? In democratic countries, in every election there is always someone who claims that the election will be the most important one in a voter’s life. Already, foreign media such as the Economist and Nikkei Asia are calling the election one of the most important elections this year.
The reality is that in a democracy, every election is an important election. It is only through high voter turn out that democracy can be preserved. It is silly to call one election more important than a past or future election, or to scare voters into voting. Hopefully, the presidential candidates and political parties, as well as media and scholars, will encourage voters to vote, but without making silly claims that this election is the most important one.
Similarly, people should avoid claiming that Taiwan’s election is one of the most important ones in the world this year. In 2024, at least 76 countries and approximately half the world’s population will be voting. In the Asia Pacific region, elections will be held in Bangladesh, India and Indonesia, and these three elections are just as important for the security and economic development of Asia as is Taiwan’s election.
3. Will the United States government intervene? In an interview published on January 5, 2024, US National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby said the US hopes for free, fair and transparent elections in Taiwan.
Although this author believes the United States has made it abundantly clear throughout the election campaign that the U.S. prefers William Lai of the Democratic Progressive Party is elected president, hopefully in the final days before the election no US government officials makes additional statements about the Taiwan election that might be election interference.
4. Will United States scholars or former government officials intervene? At least one U.S. scholar, Bonnie Glaser, has already played a controversial role in the election campaign. Will a prominent American arrive in Taiwan this week to influence voters? Will scholars in the U.S. say things that indicate support for William Lai?
Such persons will certainly provide lots of analysis post-election, but hopefully in these last few days pre-election they will not try to interfere.
5. Finally, according to the Public Officials Election And Recall Act Article 53, and the Presidential and Vice Presidential Election and Recall Act Article 52, commenting about polls is not allowed within ten days of the voting day. Will the Central Election Commission and prosecutors bring criminal charges against violators of the “no poll” law within ten days of the election? This author is periodically interviewed by foreign media; would I really face criminal charges if I tell a foreign audience what the most recent polls were? This is a silly law, and should be eliminated. The maturity of Taiwan’s voters deserves more respect, and hopefully in the future the “cooling off day” will be reduced to one day.