紐時賞析／川普官司纏身 鐵粉仍不離不棄…選民比起道德更重政策？

川普儘管官司纏身，他的鐵桿支持者仍不離不棄。（紐約時報）

Why Trump Gets Away With All Those Horrible Things

川普壞事做盡 爲何卻不用負責

Those of us in the anti-Trump camp love to play the Horribleness Game.

我們這些反川普陣營的人熱愛玩「可怕遊戲」。

Donald Trump does something horrible. We are righteously appalled. We send emails to our friends saying, “Did you hear about this horrible thing Trump said?” We click on articles that fulminate against the horrible thing. We watch TV shows in which the pundits emote shock and dismay at the horrible thing. We feel very morally superior about ourselves and very morally appalled by that horrible man. It’s very satisfying. In fact, it’s addictive.

川普做了一些可怕的事情。我們正義凜然地感到震驚。我們發電子郵件給我們的朋友說，「你聽到川普講了這個恐怖的事嗎？」我們點選針對這恐怖的事大聲斥責的文章。我們收看電視節目，專家在螢幕上對這恐怖的事誇張地表達震驚跟沮喪。我們在道德上覺得自己非常優越，並在道德上對這個可怕的男人感到非常震驚。這令人非常滿意。事實上，讓人上癮。

But somehow the horrible thing — or even the sum total of all the horrible things — never seems to end Trump’s career. He’s still leading in the polls, especially in swing states. So then we switch to the Wait Until They Know Game. Wait until voters know the latest thing Trump said about immigrants. Wait until voters know what’s really in the indictments.

但不知何故，這個恐怖的事，甚至所有恐怖事情的總和，似乎永遠不會終結川普的事業。他仍在民調領先，特別是在搖擺州。於是我們切換到「坐等他們知道的遊戲」。坐等選民知道川普針對移民說的最新言論。坐等選民知道起訴書裡面的真實內容。

The ultimate dream of these games is that the Trump era will end with some massive moral disqualification. We’ll be morally vindicated. They will be morally disgraced. The people who play these games dream of that killer conviction. They dreamed that 14th Amendment clause would disqualify Trump from even being on the ballot.

這些遊戲的終極夢想，就是川普時代將會以一些大規模的道德失格結束。我們將在道德上證明有理。他們則將在道德上蒙受恥辱。玩這些遊戲的人都夢見這個殺手級判決。他們夢想憲法第14修正案的條款會讓川普失格，甚至讓他無法出現在選票上。

The problem with these games is they don’t work. Trump is in his strongest political position ever. According to the latest New York Times/Siena poll, 97% of the people who voted for Trump would do so again, while only 83% of Joe Biden supporters say the same. Biden is losing ground among his most loyal constituency groups. In 2020, Biden won young adults by 24 points; now his lead is 12 points. He won Hispanics by 21 points but now trails by 6. There used to be a lot more Democrats in this country than Republicans, but now the two parties are tied.

這些遊戲的問題是它們不管用。川普正處於他有史以來最強的政治地位。根據最新的紐約時報／錫耶納民調，曾投票支持川普的人有97%會再投給他，而拜登的支持者只有83%說了同樣的話。拜登在他最忠誠的選民羣體中正在失去支持。2020年，拜登在年輕人羣體贏了24個百分點，現在他只領先12個百分點。他在西語裔羣體曾贏了21個百分點，但現在卻落後6個百分點。這個國家的民主黨人曾比共和黨人多很多，但現在兩黨打成平手。

That’s because many voters don’t see politics as a place to go for moral affirmation. They want to know who will create a good environment in which they can lead their lives, and right now they trust Republicans more than Democrats to handle the economy, to handle immigration, to be generally competent. It’s about policies.

這是因爲許多選民不把政治視爲爭取道德肯定的地方。他們想要知道誰會創造一個良好環境，讓他們可以生活，而現在比起民主黨，他們更信任共和黨處理經濟、處理移民以及整體能力。這關乎政策。

There was a lot to like about Biden’s State of the Union address, but the most important thing was this: He understands that if you want to beat Trump, you have to show you have better policies that will improve people’s lives. It’s less emotionally satisfying, but it’s what people actually vote on.

關於拜登的國情諮文演講，有許多地方值得喜歡，但最重要之處在此：他明白如果你要打敗川普，你必須表明你有更好的政策來改善人民生活。這在感情上不那麼令人滿意，卻是民衆真正投票支持的對象。

文／David Brooks 譯／周辰陽