海外看世界》安倍晉三遇刺和日本的外交政策（唐納德·赫爾曼）

日本內閣會議今天決定9月27日舉行悼念前首相安倍晉三的國喪，將接受海外人士參加。(圖／中央社)

安倍晉三在代表自民黨競選時被自制手槍暗殺，這一令人震驚的事件，可能是日本國內政治和外交政策變革的一個門檻。雖然他是前首相，但他仍然領導着黨內最大的派系，現任首相岸田文雄是他親自挑選的。岸田認爲自己有責任完成安倍未完成的外交政策，但是，岸田不是一個大膽的政策領導人，也沒有政治背景來領導一場民族主義運動去實現安倍和保守黨的三個未完成的目標。

這三個目標是：

1、與美國的外交、經濟和軍事聯盟；

2、與中國維持雙邊關係，這種關係在政治和軍事上已變得緊張，在中國已發展爲區域超級大國的背景下雙方經濟上的聯繫依舊廣泛；

3、修改美國起草的憲法中的和平條款，使日本有能力以正常國家的身份參與國際安全事務。

由於自民黨在秋季大選中取得了決定性勝利，安倍的外交政策目標中唯一可能實現的就是修憲，儘管自民黨目前已具備了滿足憲法修正案法律規定所需的人數，但仍需提交必要的全民公投。這樣的公投不太可能通過所需的全民投票，而國際上的反對，尤其是在亞洲和美國，將是深遠的。無論是執政的精英層，還是以民衆爲基礎的強大的全國性運動，都不可能在安倍去世後，戲劇性地重現東京在亞洲和/或世界中的作用。

美國在全球政治和制度上的領導地位正在下降。這在一定程度上是由於美國國內政治的混亂，部分原因是地緣政治和地緣經濟力量在過去70年裡的轉移造成的(亞洲現在或將變得與北美和歐洲—過去的經濟世界一樣大，甚至更大)。此外，數字革命不可避免地會帶來變化，也爲日益相互依賴但非趨同的全球化未來世界帶來了不確定性。

未來的和平與繁榮需要的不僅僅是碎片化的國家或民族主義政策，這些政策現在構成了國際倡議(例如，烏克蘭戰爭、川普的關稅、缺乏全球衛生機制等)。此外，沒人能贏得核戰爭，數字化和常規戰爭可能會持續下去 — 但是如何、何地、何時是能被管控的。圍繞一項適應不斷變化的全球化經濟和政治環境的新戰略建立新的機構，現在需要的是全面和多邊努力。像安倍這樣的政治人士的逝去，不能成爲日本全面努力軍事化的原因。

安倍遇刺重新喚起了整個亞洲的恐懼，那是對日本在二戰中行爲的痛苦回憶。一名男子揮舞着自家車庫製造的武器，帶着他母親給韓國宗教團體--統一教會捐了太多錢的憤怒而暗殺了安倍，這簡直是荒謬可笑的。安倍過世不會成爲重建全球新秩序的理由，也不會成爲在亞洲發動核戰爭的誘因。

以下爲英文原文：

The assassination of Shinzo Abe and Japanese foreign policy

Donald C. Hellmann，University of Washington

The startling assassination of Shinzo Abe by a hand-made gun while he was campaigning on behalf of his liberal democratic party is potentially a threshold for change in domestic politics in Japan and Japanese foreign policy. Although no longer the Prime Mister, he still headed the largest faction in the party, and the current Prime Mister, Kishida, was his hand-picked choice and that he sees his responsibility to complete the unfinished foreign policy agenda of Abe. Kishda is not a bold policy leader and doesn’t have the political backing to lead a nationalist movement, required to achieve three unfinished goals of Abe, and the conservative party.

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These are 1) the diplomatic, economic, and military alliance with the United States; 2）a bilateral relationship with China—tense politically and militarily, while economically extensive but the now with Beijing grown to be a regional super power; 3) the revision of the peace article of the American-written constitution to allow Japan the capacity to participate as a normal nation in international security.

Because the Liberal Democrats decisively won the fall election, only one of Abe’s foreign policy goals that might be achieved is constitutional revision, although the party now has the necessary numbers to meet the legal rules for a constitution amendment to the submitted for the required referendum. Such a referendum is not likely to pass the required popular vote and the international opposition, particularly in Asia and from the United States will be profound. Neither the leadership of the governing elite nor a strong mass-based national movement to reassert dramatically an expansion of Tokyo’s role in Asia and/or the world, is likely to follow the death of Abe.

The political and institutional global leadership of the United States is in the decline. That is driven in part by the disarray in American domestic politics, in part by a shift of geopolitical and geoeconomics power that has developed over the last seventy years (Asia is now or will become as large or larger than the North America and Europe—the economic world of the past). Moreover, the changes unfolding inevitably by the digital revolution also contribute to uncertainty in the increasingly interdependent but non-convergent globalized world of the future.

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Future peace and prosperity will require more than fragmented national or nationalist policies that now constitute international initiatives (e.g., The Ukrainian war, Trump’s tariffs, lack of a global health institution, etc.). Also, strategic nuclear wars are unwinnable, digital, and conventional wars are likely to persist– but how and where and when can be managed. What is needed is comprehensive and multilateral effort to build new institutions around a new strategy that is appropriate to a changing globalized economic and political environment. The loss of a political leader like Abe can’t be the cause of such a comprehensive endeavor to lead to a militarized Japan.

The very thought that assassination of Abe revived the fear of the bitter memories throughout Asia of Japanese activities in the World War II. That a man wielding a weapon made in his garage, and anger because his mother gave too much money to KOREAN religious cult- the Unification Church- is simply preposterous Happily, Abe’s death will not become the reason to restructure a new global order or the precipitate a strategic war in Asia.

【作者爲美國華盛頓大學（西雅圖）教授，中文版爲陳淑英翻譯】

（本文來源《海外看世界》，授權中時新聞網刊登）

※以上言論不代表旺中媒體集團立場※