紐時賞析／將墨西哥毒梟列反恐目標 川普行政命令恐傷美經濟

墨西哥毒梟橫行，圖爲墨國執法單位查獲的100磅芬太尼原料。(美聯社)

How Labeling Cartels ‘Terrorists’ Could Hurt the U.S. Economy

將墨西哥毒梟列反恐目標 恐傷美國經濟

President Donald Trump’s executive order designating Mexican cartels and other criminal organizations as foreign terrorists could force some American companies to forgo doing business in Mexico rather than risk U.S. sanctions, according to former government officials and analysts — an outcome that could have a major effect on both countries given their deep economic interdependence.

美國政府前官員和分析家指出，總統川普的行政命令將墨西哥毒梟和其他犯罪組織認定爲外國恐怖分子，可能迫使一些美國公司放棄在墨西哥做生意，而非冒着受美國製裁的風險。有鑑於美墨兩國深厚的經濟相互依存，這個結果可能產生重大影響。

The executive order is intended to apply maximum pressure on Mexico to rein in its dangerous drug trade. The designation, more generally, also gives his administration more power to impose economic penalties and travel restrictions, and potentially even to take military action in foreign countries.

這項行政命令旨在向墨西哥施加最大壓力，以抑制其危險的毒品交易。更廣泛而言，這項認定也給他的政府更多權力實行經濟懲罰和旅行管制，甚至可能在外國採取軍事行動。

Yet, disentangling cartel operations from U.S. interests in Mexico could be immensely complicated. Mexico is the United States’ largest trade partner of goods, and many American companies have manufacturing operations there.

然而，將毒梟運作和美國在墨西哥的利益分開，可能極其複雜。墨西哥是美國最大的商品貿易伙伴，且許多美國公司在那裡有製造業活動。

Even more complicated, these criminal networks have extended their operations far beyond drug trafficking and human smuggling. They are now embedded in a wide swath of the legal economy, from avocado farming to the country’s billion-dollar tourism industry, making it hard to be absolutely sure that American companies are isolated from cartel activities.

更復雜的是，這些犯罪網已將他們的活動拓展至毒品販運和人口走私以外範圍。他們現在深植於廣泛的合法經濟，從酪梨種植到該國數十億美元的觀光業，以致很難完全確定的將美國公司和毒梟活動隔絕。

“This has come up in previous administrations across the political spectrum and from members of Congress who have wanted to do it,” said Samantha Sultoon, a senior adviser on sanctions policy and threat finance in the Trump and Biden administrations.

川普和拜登政府制裁政策和威脅金融問題資深顧問珊曼莎．蘇爾頓表示：「過去各政治光譜的政府和曾想這麼做的國會成員，都曾提出這種做法。」

“But no one has done it because they have looked at what the implications would be on trade, economic and financial relationships between Mexico and the United States,” she added.”

她補充說：「但沒有人這麼做，因爲他們檢視了可能爲美墨貿易、經濟和金融關係帶來的後果。」

The foreign terrorist designation could lead to severe penalties — including substantial fines, asset seizures and criminal charges — on companies and individuals found to be paying ransom or extortion payments. U.S. companies could also be ensnared by standard payments made to Mexican companies that a cartel controls without the American companies’ knowledge.

外國恐怖分子的認定，可能導致嚴重處罰，被發現支付贖金和勒索款項的公司和個人，可能被處以鉅額罰款、資產凍結和刑事指控。美國公司也可能在不知情狀況下，向被毒梟控制的墨西哥公司支付一般款項而陷入困境。

Cartels use the legal economy to launder money, which could mean that unwitting employees working at a resort or an avocado packing company could technically be on the cartel payroll but not know it.

毒梟利用合法經濟洗錢，這意味在度假村或酪梨包裝公司工作的不知情員工，技術上可能名列毒梟的員工名單但不自知。

文／Maria Abi-Habib and Simon Romero　譯／羅方妤